Evaluating the accuracy and uncertainty of atmospheric and wave model hindcasts during severe events using model ensembles

Abstract Various uncertainties exist in a hindcast due to the inabilities of numerical models resolve all complicated atmosphere-sea interactions, and lack certain ground truth observations. Here, comprehensive analysis an atmospheric model performance mode (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model—HWRF) its 40 ensembles during severe events is conducted, evaluating accuracy uncertainty for hurricane track parameters, wind speed collected along satellite altimeter tracks at stationary source point Subsequently, downstream spectral wave WAVEWATCH III forced by two sets field data, each includes members. The first ones are randomly extracted from original HWRF simulations second based on spread best parameters. error altimeters observations estimated. study Hurricane Irma reveals that this extreme event within ensemble spreads. While both Models have wide spreads over areas with landmass, maximum eye contrast model.